Home Trading The Chart Guys Inventory Market Evaluate! (April 20th, 2020)

Inventory Market Evaluate! (April 20th, 2020)

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28 COMMENTS

  1. When I heard you held a SPY short position overnight, it shocked me. You and most of the responsible traders that do this for a living never hold overnight. Especially distressing because I went long for the first time in a long time a few days ago, and was trying to get the last few dollars out of this rally. Your reasoning was because of the constant oil headlines for 12-15 hours. But I thought technicals traders ignore the noise of the TV, and trade the chart alone (almost without even knowing the symbol)? I know we're in an hourly downtrend, but you led off your reasoning with "because of the constant headlines".

    And it sounds like you're just doing it to prove the people trading oil that they have no idea what they're doing. Which is true. But even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes. USO is majorly oversold on the daily, so it would not be a shocker to get a dead cat bounce for a lower high soon.

    P.S. I'm staying long because I was examining the rally, and I saw on the hourly chart that with every spike, consolidation, then usually about a double top, a decent drop, then a spike to a new high. It looked like a double top either Friday or today, then there was the flush the end of the day. If the trend holds, it may trade flat to upwards a bit for a day or two, then have a gap and go Thursday or Friday, which happens to be right after NFLX earnings.

  2. I was so confused by oil today. I was like, how can oil be negative !!!
    Does that mean I'm going to get paid to pump gas in my car ??
    Then later realized, yes I can get paid for "buying" oil for nothing. I just need to find a way to transport and store 42,000 gallons of it and then sell it at an opportune time.

  3. I saw your comment on Erik's thread this weekend. He's pretty passionate about oil. I trade futures, but I didn't even really understand the oil futures until the end of his podcast from two weeks ago, when he broke down the time spreads trade. Really made oil click in my head, if you want to check out the Macro Voices podcast. It's toward the end in the market breakdown.

  4. I view oil as fundamental. It’s supply and demand. When the fundamentals are strong like there is so much oil they have no place to put it. The price is going down. No matter what. It doesn’t even matter if they stop production. There is so little demand.

  5. Thanks Dan, I was wondering.. do you think there’s any credence to the theory that the media has been pushing the V bottom narrative so that tutes can sell into the strength? I have 0 concrete evidence for this lol

  6. Hahah I told my friend today exactly the same thing : I dont trade what I dont understand! He wanted to get me into USO

  7. I heard oil was dropping and started buying WTI. It looked super cheap and I admit I had no clue what I was doing. FOMO'd in an immediately knew I messed up. But I broke even for now. A lot of doomsayers going around and I personally believe if the oil market collapses we'll have a lot more to worry about than just our accounts. Thanks for the heads up on oil tankers acting as storage.

  8. You are on another level Dan. Your quick cognitive pattern recognition amazingly continues to climb. What an art you form my brother! Wish we were trading and permaculture homesteading on neighboring parcels! Perhaps one day! Bless

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